Tuesday, June 21, 2011

You Can't Eat the "Lifestyle"

From this morning's Oregonian. Note especially the third paragraph:

Forget about expanding Portland's economic pie anytime soon. A new report predicts the metro area must wait until mid 2014 just to recover the number of jobs it had before the recession.

Corvallis will do better, returning to pre-recession peak employment in 2013, according to the report Monday by IHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting firm. Medford will take until 2018 and Eugene-Springfield until 2019, the report said.

Metro Bend? Oregon's poster city for the housing bubble won't stage a jobs comeback until  "beyond 2021," the forecasters said. They see double-digit unemployment gripping Deschutes County through 2013.

I'm ceaselessly amazed by how many people come to Bend without a job or any prospect of one because "they just want to live here." They stay until their savings are exhausted -- one month, two months, six months -- and then they either leave or become a burden on the social services system.

Maybe we need to stop encouraging people to move here for the "healthy outdoor lifestyle" unless they've got a healthy paycheck in the offing.


How Did I Get Here? said...

Metro Bend? Oregon's poster city for the housing bubble won't stage a jobs comeback until "beyond 2021," the forecasters said. They see double-digit unemployment gripping Deschutes County through 2013.

No doubt, we's fugged for a long time. NODs still clobbering sales so no bottom in sight. I'm thinking we've got another 24 months to go before we see any sort of bottom. I think local RE values are tanking at the rate of 1% a month. Folks are still being sent packing. Bend is not the place to show up and start a new life unless you bring your money with you or you like Top Ramen and living in your car.

You know what I find interesting is that while we state we have a skilled workforce, I struggle to find qualified people to fill positions. Maybe it the industry, I dunno. This has always been the case.

Oh well, more room on the mountain for this kid. Bummed me out a couple years back that all the secret stashes are no longer a secret. I like the idea of elbow room.

Marshall_Will said...

In analyst speak, putting out the jobs recovery a decade is essentially their way of saying fuggedaboutit!

We were in Corvallis for Commencement and I must say.., Recession? WHAT 'recession'? We predicted college towns would fare better. Small wonder no one ever wants to leave them? Unfortunately for the grad class, cold hard reality awaits. Green Jobs have failed to materialize.

Realizing there -are- sectors of the economy outside Retail, Construction that aren't Pop. Growth dependent, I still fail to see the "more for ME!" mentality? If you're self-employed, being in a metro that's generally expanding is a good thing. Don't see Itellectual Property 'flocking' to DETROIT!?

My impression of the SoCal-Bend transplant is middle mgr./SE, sold company or took stock options so no real need to "seek employment". Sold home in Laguna Beach for $750k-$1 mil. and paid CASH for Bend home. Then grossly miscalculated both stock AND real estate mkt. and if THEY aren't "Winning!" then they don't want to PLAY. Real Estate "only goes up!" and they're really smart guys?

Yeah, 'retiring at 45' has its downsides. ( Who knew? ) Especially when you still have kids in SCHOOL!

Marshall_Will said...

Currently sucking it bigtime. The 'advertised' High for the day, 75. Currently we're at 68 ( which I think is generous ) and totally over cast.

If this were March, I'd be tickled. Going on late June, less than impressed. Looks like it could bust loose at any minute and the ADVERTISEMENT for the bal. of the week doesn't exactly look f@cking stellar either.

H. Bruce Miller said...

That's weird. It's sunny and 84 in Bend.

Marshall_Will said...

Hey, I'm HAPPY for you! As I've said, it gives me no pleasure to see The Drear spreading. It would be akin to hoping other passenger's compartments next to your Titanic stateroom were filling up equally fast?

The More Separation and Less Convergence of weather patterns the BETTER where I'm concerned.